World food prices may rise sharply by the end of the year, and next year food inflation will only intensify. The forecasts are driven by crises in key agricultural regions.
The chief economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Maximo Torero, told Reuters that he expects a rapid increase in commodity prices, which will lead to a rise in food prices. Torero emphasized that the increase in raw material costs will affect the final prices of food products within three to six months. This process could trigger a new wave of food inflation by the end of 2026.
Additional factors contributing to price increases include the war in Ukraine, the conflict in Iran, rising oil prices, and problems with fertilizer supplies from the Persian Gulf. In addition, diesel shortages and extreme weather conditions are negatively affecting agriculture. Decreased profitability forces farmers to change their crop structure. In the United States, for example, there is a reduction in corn planting in favor of soybeans, which require fewer fertilizers.
The El Niño phenomenon also poses a significant risk to crops in various regions of the world. In India, monsoon delays have already been recorded, which may reduce rice yields and lead to further price increases. Such changes in the global market could have a significant impact on the economies of countries that depend on food imports.
| Factor | Impact on Prices |
|---|---|
| War in Ukraine | Increase in raw material prices |
| Conflict in Iran | Rise in oil prices |
| Problems with fertilizer supplies | Increase in agricultural costs |
| El Niño | Crop reduction, price hikes |
