The United States Department of Agriculture raised the forecast for grain production in Ukraine for the 2026/2027 year by 3.7 million tons, while simultaneously reducing export figures by 2.2 million tons.
According to the August USDA report, the wheat production forecast increased by 1.4 million tons to 25.4 million tons, and fodder grain — by 2.31 million tons to 38.59 million tons, of which corn accounts for 31.8 million tons, up by 1.8 million tons. However, the export figures for wheat were reduced by 1 million tons to 13.5 million tons, and fodder grain — by 1.21 million tons to 24.27 million tons, with corn making up 22.0 million tons, reduced by 1.0 million tons.
The difference between increased production and reduced exports will significantly affect carryover stocks. Wheat stock estimates rose by 2.27 million tons to 4.80 million tons, and fodder grain — by 3.40 million tons to 7.13 million tons, with corn increasing by 2.80 million tons to 4.86 million tons.
It was also indicated that the wheat export forecast from Russia was lowered by 1.5 million tons to 46.0 million tons, and fodder grain — by 0.4 million tons to 7.58 million tons. The global volume of wheat trade decreased by 0.3 million tons to 212.7 million tons. This reduction was partly offset by increased supplies from Canada and Kazakhstan.
| Indicator | Change | Total Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Wheat Production | +1.4 million tons | 25.4 million tons |
| Wheat Export | -1.0 million tons | 13.5 million tons |
| Wheat Stocks | +2.27 million tons | 4.80 million tons |
| Fodder Grain Production | +2.31 million tons | 38.59 million tons |
| Fodder Grain Export | -1.21 million tons | 24.27 million tons |
| Fodder Grain Stocks | +3.40 million tons | 7.13 million tons |
| Global Wheat Trade | -0.3 million tons | 212.7 million tons |
