Ukrainian export revenue in 2026 may decrease by more than $2 billion due to the limited capacity of alternative routes. This is outlined in the inflation report of the National Bank of Ukraine, which provides a detailed analysis of the export situation in the second half of 2026.
After the blockage of traditional routes, Ukraine redirected the transportation of agricultural products to railways, road transport, and ports on the Danube. According to the NBU, these routes can handle only 2.5 million tons of products per month, while previous export volumes were 4-4.5 million tons. This could affect the state’s export revenues, especially in August-October, when conditions will become even more difficult due to the lowering water levels in the Danube. However, the central bank forecasts that some of the under-exported products will be shipped during the first half of 2027.
The reorganization of logistics routes might also increase farmers’ expenses on transportation and storage of goods. Despite temporary difficulties, Ukrainian exporters have gained experience adapting to new conditions since 2022 and are already utilizing the expanded capabilities of other transport routes.
Amid the rising logistics costs for the agricultural sector, goods imports to Ukraine in 2026 exceeded exports by twofold. From January to July, the foreign trade turnover amounted to $82.2 billion, with imports at $58.1 billion and exports at $24.1 billion.
The NBU emphasizes that due to efforts in developing alternative export routes and the adaptability of the agricultural sector, the situation is more controllable than during the 2022 blockade, and further export growth is planned from November onwards.
| Period | Export (billion USD) | Import (billion USD) | Foreign Trade Turnover (billion USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| January-July 2026 | 24.1 | 58.1 | 82.2 |
