The pace of Russia’s advance in Donbas significantly lags behind historical examples
Almost four years after the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine, Russia remains far from establishing full control over the Donetsk region. Experts compare the situation with World War II, where the Allies reached Berlin in a similar timeframe.
As noted by The Wall Street Journal, the pace of the Russian advance in Donbas is slower than most major military campaigns of the past century. Seth Jones from the Center for Strategic and International Studies emphasized that the actions of the Russian army do not indicate the possibility of strategic changes in the war. Currently, Russia is trying to wage a “war of attrition” of Ukraine’s resources, rather than making rapid breakthroughs. Finnish Black Bird Group analyst Pasi Paroinen points out that Ukrainian forces have been able to buy time, albeit at considerable effort.
Unnamed Western military officials and Ukrainian officers confirm that at present, Russia has not achieved a strategic breakthrough. Commander-in-Chief Serhiy Sirski on December 9 described the pace of the Russian advance as “insignificant,” especially noting the strong Ukrainian defense in the Pokrovsk area.
Thus, the protracted nature of the conflict requires new approaches and tactics from both sides. Ukraine continues to defend its territories, while experts assess the long-term consequences of such a war for both states, particularly in terms of preserving human and material resources.
| Campaigns | Time to achieve the goal | Goal |
| World War II, Allies | Less than 4 years | Capture of Berlin |
| Donbas War, Russia | More than 4 years | Control over Donetsk region |




