The price of Russian Urals oil in the early days of July decreased to around $41.66 per barrel at western ports, leading to a significant reduction in the country’s energy export revenues.
According to Bloomberg, based on Argus Media data, the current Urals price is below pre-war levels and less than half the level recorded during the oil crisis in April. Such a significant price drop exacerbates financial pressure on the Russian budget, where a significant portion of revenues depends on the oil and gas sector.
Throughout the spring, the average price of Urals oil was higher than the budgeted level of $59 per barrel, particularly in June when it reached $60.92. This allowed the Russian economy to receive additional revenues amid changes in the global oil market and to secure the accumulation of reserve funds. However, the price reduction again intensifies budgetary challenges. The country’s budget deficit for the first five months of the year increased to 6 trillion rubles, which is 60% higher than the annual planned figure.
The price of Urals oil supplied through Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk decreased 2.5 times compared to the March peaks. This significantly affects Russia’s oil revenues, which are critical for maintaining economic stability under international sanctions. Experts note that further oil price fluctuations could complicate the situation even more, considering global market trends and political tensions.
| Indicator | First half of 2023 | Peak of the oil crisis |
|---|---|---|
| Urals Price | $41.66 | More than $80 |
| Russian Federation budget deficit | 6 trillion rubles | – |
| Budget deviation | +60% | – |
