The Russian oil and gas revenues are expected to significantly decrease, analysts predict
According to Reuters, the revenues of the Russian budget from oil and gas in November 2025 could decrease by 35% compared to the same month in 2024. The decline is associated with the cheapening of oil and the strengthening of the ruble.
Revenues from oil and gas traditionally account for about a quarter of the Russian federal budget, making this income stream critically important for the Russian economy. In November 2025, as per Reuters estimates, these revenues will amount to approximately 520 billion rubles (around 6.59 billion dollars). Additionally, revenues are expected to decrease by 7.4% compared to the previous month.
Economic indicators show a decrease in the price of Russian oil for taxation purposes from $68.3 per barrel in 2024 to $57.3 in 2025. Meanwhile, the ruble’s exchange rate has improved, reaching 81.1 rubles per dollar, compared to 91.7 rubles per dollar the previous year.
In the first 11 months of 2025, the overall drop in oil and gas revenues is expected to be around 22%, and they will decrease by 2 trillion rubles over the year. During a meeting with President Vladimir Putin, the head of the Federal Tax Service, Daniil Yegorov, confirmed this data. The Central Bank of Russia notes that this could negatively affect the country’s economic situation.
| Indicator | 2024 | Expected 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Oil price per barrel | $68.3 | $57.3 |
| Ruble exchange rate to dollar | 91.7 | 81.1 |
| Oil and gas revenue (billion rubles) | 800 (October) | 520 (November) |
The decline in oil and gas revenues suggests a possible reorganization of budget priorities and might require the Kremlin to search for new sources of income. Currently, economic uncertainty casts doubt on the stability of Russia’s financial system.
