Global Oil Market: Record Surplus Expected, Prices May Fall
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a significant oversupply in the global oil market in 2024, which could lead to a substantial drop in prices.
The IEA has increased its forecast for the oil surplus by 18%, driven by rising production in OPEC+ countries and other oil producers. The surplus is expected to reach 4 million barrels per day, equivalent to nearly 4% of global demand. This may lead to the average price of Russian oil falling below $50 per barrel, creating significant risks for the Russian budget, a substantial portion of which is used for military expenditures.
Oil prices are already showing instability: in October, Brent futures fell by 2.2% to $61.9. Factors that could impact the market in 2024 include sanctions against Russia and Iran, as well as escalating geopolitical conflicts. Additionally, the growth in oil demand is slowing due to economic factors and the transition to electric vehicles.
Oil consumption is projected to grow by only 700,000 barrels per day annually, reaching 104.5 million barrels in 2024, while average daily production will increase to 108.5 million barrels by 2026.
| Indicator | 2024 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Increase in production (million barrels/day) | 3.0 | 2.4 |
| Expected demand (million barrels/day) | 104.5 | Not specified |
| Expected surplus (million barrels/day) | 4.0 | Not specified |
These changes in the market, combined with the geopolitical context, exert additional pressure on global economic stability and energy security. Analysts emphasize that these factors could significantly adjust the market situation in the coming years.
