Exports of Russian gas have reached levels seen during the Brezhnev era.

Russian gas exports to Europe reach a historic low

Gas exports from Russia to the European Union this year may amount to only 18 billion cubic meters, the lowest figure in the last half-century. This marks another decline in supplies, which have already decreased by 45% compared to last year.

According to Reuters estimates based on “TurkStream” statistics, in the first ten months of 2023, Gazprom supplied European clients with 14.7 billion cubic meters of gas. This figure is significantly lower than last year’s for the same period, when exports were at 26.6 billion cubic meters. The reduction in supplies is caused by the halt of transit through Ukraine.

Current supply rates indicate that by the end of the year, gas exports to Europe may amount to about 18 billion cubic meters, which will be the lowest since the 1970s when the first major deliveries from the Soviet Union to Austria began. For comparison, in 1975, 19.3 billion cubic meters of gas were supplied to the European market, and the record for deliveries was recorded in 2018-2019 at 170-180 billion cubic meters. Today, export volumes have fallen tenfold, and Gazprom’s gas business is in a deep crisis.

Losses from gas production and sales last year amounted to 1.076 trillion rubles, which equals approximately 20.6 billion rubles per week. Theoretically, Gazprom could sell up to 500 billion cubic meters of gas annually, yet last year the company managed to export only 81 billion cubic meters. For 2023, considering the full capacity launch of “Power of Siberia”, the forecasted export volume will decrease to 78 billion cubic meters.

The decision of the EU Council, adopted at the beginning of this year, provides for a complete ban on the import of Russian gas to take effect from January 1, 2028. The decline in Russia’s oil and gas revenues since the beginning of the year has already reached 20%, further complicating the economic situation in the country.