Prices for Russian oil continue to decline, causing financial pressure on the Russian budget. Reduced oil revenues may complicate the possibility of continuing military actions.
The continued decline in Urals oil prices, a key Russian export commodity, deepens the economic pressure on the Kremlin. While US and EU sanctions gradually impact the reduction in the cost of Russian energy resources, the decrease in oil prices significantly complicates Russia’s budget forecasts. The government has budgeted $58 and $59 per barrel for 2025 and 2026, respectively, which now seem like optimistic estimates.
The price used to calculate oil taxes has been continually decreasing: in July, it was $60.37, in August $57.56, in September $56.82, and in October it has already dropped to $53.68. This reduction in budget revenues supports the risks of forming an unplanned deficit. Achieving stability is only possible with a stronger reduction to $45 per barrel and with the repair of half of Russia’s oil refineries.
Experts warn that the current price dynamics may deepen the economic crisis and make large-scale military operations impossible without the involvement of additional resources. This could cause internal changes in Russia’s strategy on the international stage. However, the existing sanctions today demonstrate their effectiveness in the long-term perspective.
| Month | Price per barrel ($) |
|---|---|
| July | 60.37 |
| August | 57.56 |
| September | 56.82 |
| October | 53.68 |
