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Up to $2 billion in annual budget revenue: what the Defense Tech association and manufacturers say about the impact of arms exports on their activities.

Ukraine Plans to Initiate Controlled Arms Exports to Finance Defense Industry

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the launch of the “Weapon” program, which aims to initiate controlled exports of Ukrainian weaponry. This decision is intended to provide financial support for the production of new types of weapons that are particularly needed for Ukraine’s defense.

Speaking at the DFNC3 forum, President Zelensky emphasized that the exports will concern surplus armaments, enabling funds to be directed towards producing necessary weapons for Ukraine’s Armed Forces. Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal added that ongoing initiatives “Build with Ukraine” and “Build in Ukraine” involve collaboration with over 25 defense companies, with the expectation of signing seven new contracts by the end of the year.

This announcement marks a significant event following years of discussion among arms manufacturers about lifting export restrictions. The Ukrainian Council of Gunsmiths has long supported controlled exports as a means to scale up production, provided the needs of the country’s armed forces are fully met. According to the organization, each deal should undergo state licensing and include an end-user certificate, a re-export ban, and post-delivery monitoring.

The focus of the export is expected to be on naval drones and anti-tank missile systems. In the future, the export of adapted versions of unmanned aerial vehicles and electronic warfare systems might be considered, provided it does not impact domestic needs.

Calculations show that the potential economic impact of implementing the export program could exceed billions of dollars annually, leading to substantial tax revenues and job creation. Such changes could significantly strengthen Ukraine’s defense potential, ensuring stable funding for developing new technologies.

Scenario Export Volume (billion USD) Tax Revenue (billion USD)
Conservative 0.5 0.1
Realistic 1.5-2.5 Up to 0.5
Ambitious Up to 10 Over 2

This move could be an essential step towards enhancing Ukraine’s economic and defense potential, allowing the country not only to fortify national security but also to boost international cooperation in the defense sector. However, the exact timeline for implementing controlled export permissions remains uncertain, as the process is still under development.

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