The Russian economy is under significant pressure due to rising military spending, which has reached record levels since the Soviet Union. This is marked by the growth of the military-industrial complex’s share in GDP, which has nearly tripled in the past year.
According to analysts from Raiffeisenbank, a significant contribution to the growth of the Russian economy in 2025 is ensured by the military-industrial complex, which operates in three shifts to produce weapons. In the third quarter of 2025, 0.4 percentage points out of 0.6% of overall economic growth came from ‘public administration and security assurance’. Simultaneously, since 2022 Russia has directed about 42 trillion rubles (or 542 billion US dollars) to armaments and security forces.
According to Alexandra Prokopenko from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, such an economic structure turns Russia into a “single-use product economy,” where employment and wages are rising, but only products for war are created. Economic activity is supported, but long-term assets such as infrastructure or social services are not created.
Data from Rosstat indicate a deepening decline in civilian sectors: in the third quarter, production decreased in sectors such as clothing, furniture, metallurgy, and chemistry. Highlighting the scale of the recession, 17 out of 24 industrial sectors are in recession, encompassing about 80% of all goods produced in Russia.
Experts warn that such a concentration of resources in the military sphere could have significant long-term consequences for the civilian economy, leading to cuts in social programs and increased economic pressure on the population.
| Industry | Decline in % |
|---|---|
| Clothing | 5.4% |
| Furniture | 9.7% |
| Metallurgy | 6.9% |
| Chemical industry | 0.7% |
| Petroleum products | 3.5% |
