Ukraine’s GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 exceeded forecasts
Ukraine’s real GDP in the third quarter of 2025 increased by 2.1% compared to the same period in 2024, which exceeded the previous forecasts of the National Bank of Ukraine.
According to data from the State Statistics Service, in the third quarter of this year, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter, taking into account the seasonal factor. This was a significant improvement compared to the second quarter, where growth was only 0.2%. Although the National Bank of Ukraine had forecasted growth at 2.4%, actual data indicated a value of 2.1%. The forecast for GDP growth in the future remains cautious, with 3.4% for the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2% for 2026.
The revision of macroeconomic forecasts is driven by several factors, including an energy deficit, damage to gas extraction infrastructure, and a shortage of labor. Despite this year’s inflation improvement to 9.2%, the forecast for 2026 remains at 6.6%.
| Quarter | GDP Growth (%) | NBU Forecast (July 2025) (%) |
|---|---|---|
| First | 0.9% | 2.1% |
| Second | 0.8% | 3.5% |
| Third | 2.1% | 2.4% |
| Fourth (forecast) | – | 3.4% |
