The National Bank of Ukraine Forecasts Accelerated Economic Recovery in the Second Half of 2025
The National Bank of Ukraine expects that the country’s economic recovery will accelerate in the second half of 2025, despite a slowdown in growth rates in the second quarter.
According to data from the National Bank of Ukraine, the country’s real GDP grew by 0.7% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, slightly lower than the 0.9% growth in the first quarter. The main factors contributing to this slowdown were the consequences of the war, loss of production capacity, and weak agricultural sector performance. However, consumer demand remains stable, as evidenced by a 4.7% increase in retail trade.
The agricultural sector experienced a significant decline due to unfavorable weather conditions and late harvests, leading to a more than 23% drop in gross value added. Part of the harvest is expected to be gathered in the third quarter, which may improve overall indicators. In contrast, growth was observed in the industrial, construction, and energy sectors. Notably, the energy sector grew by 5%, and construction by more than 12%.
The National Bank of Ukraine believes that the economic situation will improve in the second half of the year due to active harvesting, increased domestic demand, and higher budget expenditures. However, security risks and attacks on critical infrastructure pose threats to economic growth.
Analysts note that while Ukraine’s economy shows signs of stability, war-related threats continue to affect long-term forecasts. According to the World Bank, GDP growth in 2026 will remain at 2%, with acceleration to 5% expected only in 2027.
| Indicator | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Retail Trade | – | 4.7% |
| Agricultural Sector Growth | – | -23% |
| Energy Sector Growth | – | 5% |
| Construction Growth | – | 12% |
