Conversations between Ushakov and Witkoff: a new stage of diplomatic disputes around Ukraine
The disclosure of conversations between Vladimir Putin’s adviser Yuri Ushakov, special envoy Kirill Dmitriev, and businessman Steve Witkoff has added new colors to the diplomatic process surrounding Ukraine. The scandal may change the negotiation architecture and roles of participants.
The leak of the negotiation contents shows how fragile the diplomatic process can be. Ukraine has already stated that no decisions will be made without its involvement, thereby freezing informal contacts. The scandal undermined trust not only between states but also among negotiators. Witkoff, with his closeness to Donald Trump, risks being removed from the negotiation process, and the incident itself may become a source of domestic political scandal in the US.
According to experts, the US may appoint a new official special representative to reformat the negotiation architecture to avoid toxicity. Dan Driscoll, a representative of Vice President Di Vance’s team, is already being considered as a potential candidate. This way, the negotiation process may receive a new team and clear official frameworks.
The Kremlin, in turn, may use the leak as a propaganda element, indicating the US’s desire to reach a compromise which, allegedly, Ukraine is hindering. This message will be actively spread in the world media and through the UN, creating pressure on Ukraine’s allies and potential division.
Ukraine is considering the possibility of seizing the initiative. This could be an opportunity to declare its peace initiatives and conditions of the “peace formula,” as well as regain control over the diplomatic agenda. The decision to send a new representative to defend the interests of the country is being discussed; however, the question of whom to appoint remains open.
The position around Ukraine grants it the opportunity for an initiative approach, but the end of the war seems to be postponed indefinitely. The question of whose game it is and what goals its participants pursue remains relevant.
| Scenario | Description |
|---|---|
| Roll back initiatives | Freezing unofficial contacts, removing Witkoff from the process |
| Reformat negotiations | Appointing a new special representative, new team, and frameworks |
| Russian propaganda | The Kremlin uses the leak to pressure Ukraine’s allies |
| Domestic American scandal | Using the scandal in the election campaign |
| Ukrainian initiative | Expanding the “peace formula,” enhancing diplomatic role |
