Due to Russia’s blockade of Black Sea ports, Ukraine can currently export only about half of its potential volume of agricultural products. Without deep-water Black Sea ports, it may be impossible to export around 30 million tonnes of products worth approximately $30 billion in the current marketing year.
According to Interfax-Ukraine, this was stated on Friday, October 2, by Taras Vysotskyi, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food.
“Without the existing deep-water Black Sea ports, we can export about half of the products we have grown and that are intended for export. When we speak about the consequences, it means the inability to export around 30 million tonnes of agricultural products worth approximately $30 billion in the current marketing year.”
Taras Vysotskyi, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food
Agricultural export volumes in September
In September, Ukraine managed to export 2.4 million tonnes of agricultural products, or 46% of the potentially required volume. In particular, it exported:
- 1.4 million tonnes of grain — 38% of potentially required exports;
- 444,000 tonnes of oilseeds — 83%;
- 311,000 tonnes of oil — 64%;
- 280,000 tonnes of meal — 46%.
“That is, we are reaching what we had forecast: that 45–50% is the objective maximum within the current routes.”
Taras Vysotskyi, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food
Alternative routes
The Danube accounted for the largest share of agricultural exports in September — 1.3 million tonnes, or 54% of the total volume. Rail transport accounted for 993,000 tonnes, or 41%, while road transport carried 120,000 tonnes, or 5%.
“In September, compared with August, we increased both rail transport and the Danube route.”
Taras Vysotskyi, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food
Russia’s blockade of the ports of Greater Odesa, according to the estimates cited, poses risks to Ukraine’s export revenues and the operation of key industries. Various estimates suggest that between $0.8–1.2 billion and $1.5–2 billion in export revenue could be at risk each month, depending on the duration and scale of the restrictions.
It was previously reported that agricultural exports fell by 41.5% in August, to 2.15 million tonnes. This was the lowest monthly figure since the beginning of the year.
