The Decline in Energy Revenues in Russia: The Budget Lost 30% in the First Five Months of 2026
Russia’s revenues from energy exports in the first five months of 2026 decreased by 30%, reaching 2.98 trillion rubles, which represents a significant deviation from the planned annual budget.
The average price of Russian Urals oil in May fell by 8.8% compared to April, amounting to 86.52 dollars per barrel. Nevertheless, it exceeds the figure budgeted in the Russian budget for 2026 by 27.5 dollars. This increase supported quotes on world markets, in particular, due to the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, when US and Israeli strikes on Iran led to the closure of the Hormuz Strait.
During May, the price of Urals stood at 86.52 dollars per barrel, reflecting a downward trend after rising in April to 94.87 dollars, the highest figure since 2014. It is worth mentioning that in 2025, the average price of this oil brand was significantly lower, dropping to 55.62 dollars per barrel, the lowest level in five years.
Experts note that further reduction in energy revenues may negatively impact Russia’s economic stability, especially in the context of rising tensions in global energy markets. Nonetheless, high prices for Urals currently partially compensate for losses caused by decreased export volumes.
| Period | Energy Revenues (trillion rubles) | Average Urals Price (dollars per barrel) |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.26 | 55.62 |
| 5 months of 2026 | 2.98 | 86.52 |
