OECD countries may face a critical oil supply crisis
Global oil reserves are rapidly depleting due to the conflict in the Persian Gulf, which could lead to fuel shortages and price instability in the market.
According to Bloomberg, oil supply issues from the Persian Gulf are caused by the restriction of tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz amidst the ongoing regional conflict. According to data from the International Energy Agency, from March 1 to April 25, global oil reserves were reduced by 4.8 million barrels per day. Of this volume, about 60% was crude oil, and the remaining 40% were petroleum products.
Experts warn that global reserves are quickly approaching the “operational minimum,” which increases the risk of market destabilization. JPMorgan forecasts indicate possible “operational stress” in OECD countries shortly, and by September, there is a risk of reaching a critical condition in the functioning of the oil system.
The most pressure is faced by import-dependent Asian countries, including Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan, and the Philippines. Within a month, the level of reserves in these countries might reach a critical mark. In contrast, large economies like China remain in a more stable state.
The United States has also recorded a shortage of crude oil and petroleum products, which are below historically average levels. Distillate reserves have dropped to their lowest level since 2005. To support the market, governments have already used about 400 million barrels from strategic reserves. However, further depletion of these reserves could further weaken the global reserve system, threatening additional shocks.
